Staff Reporter :
The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has projected that Bangladesh’s apparel exports could exceed US $50 billion by 2026, according to its recent report titled “Roadmap for Investment Policy Reforms and Sustainable Development in Bangladesh.”
This forecast, based on data from the International Finance Corporation (IFC), estimates apparel exports will reach approximately US $51 billion by that year.
However, despite this optimistic projection, analysts have voiced doubts about the feasibility of achieving the target, citing the negative impact of tariffs imposed by the United States globally.
According to the Bangladesh Garment Manufacturers and Exporters Association (BGMEA), the country’s apparel exports stood at US $27 billion in 2020, rose to US $36 billion in 2021, and further increased to US $46 billion in 2022. Nevertheless, export growth has slowed in the two years since.
Concerns are growing over the adverse effects of US tariffs on the global economy, particularly on Bangladesh, which is heavily dependent on the US market for its apparel exports. Economists argue that reaching the US $50 billion mark will be extremely challenging under the current conditions.
Dr Fahmida Khatun, Executive Director of the Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD), stated, “The situation before and after the imposition of US tariffs is entirely different.
I am not convinced that the current circumstances have been fully taken into account in the ADB’s projection. If these tariffs remain in place, it will be extremely difficult to surpass the US $50 billion export target.”
She added that US tariffs could dampen global economic performance, leading to slower growth and diminished consumer purchasing power. Furthermore, diversifying into alternative markets could prove difficult, as demand in those markets may also be negatively affected by tariffs. Dr Khatun noted that without the issue of tariffs, achieving the US $50 billion target would not have seemed unattainable.
On a more positive note, the Export Promotion Bureau (EPB) reported that Bangladesh’s apparel exports reached US $34 billion in the first nine months of the current fiscal year, up from US $27 billion during the same period last year-an increase of 11 per cent.
Industry stakeholders remain hopeful that, if this growth trend continues, significant progress could be made by the end of the fiscal year.
Moreover, the National Export Policy for 2024-27, approved last year, sets out a goal for total export earnings to reach US $110 billion by the end of the 2026-27 fiscal year.
Although Bangladesh has made notable strides in apparel exports, concerns persist regarding overall export volume. Nonetheless, experts believe that there is still considerable potential for further growth in the sector, given the country’s existing production capacity.
