BNP’s diplomatic direction

NN Desk :

“Morning shows the day” — the proverb aptly captures the early foreign policy signals of the newly formed BNP government led by Tarique Rahman.

Just days into office after a decisive victory in the 13th National Election, several developments offer insight into the administration’s likely diplomatic trajectory. Four initial steps stand out.

First, in his debut press briefing after the election, Tarique Rahman emphasised that Bangladesh’s foreign policy would be guided primarily by national interest and the will of the people.

Addressing both domestic and international journalists, he underscored sovereignty, economic pragmatism and balanced diplomacy as core principles.

Second, his stated intention to revitalise SAARC as a platform for regional cooperation has drawn the attention of policy analysts.

A renewed focus on SAARC suggests an attempt to rebuild structured engagement with neighbouring countries through multilateral channels rather than relying solely on bilateral mechanisms.

Third, the appointment of KhalilurRahman as Foreign Minister is widely seen as a significant signal to Western capitals, particularly Washington.

A seasoned diplomat with experience in national security affairs, his elevation suggests continuity and professionalism in foreign policy management.

Fourth, the decision to restore the name Bangladesh Rifles (BDR) in place of BGB, though largely symbolic, may carry diplomatic implications — particularly in shaping public discourse on border management and relations with India.

While symbolic gestures do not determine policy, they can influence political tone and public perception.

Bangladesh’s three largest trading partners are India, China and the United States. The country runs trade deficits with India and China but enjoys a trade surplus with the US — a reality that underscores the economic logic of strengthening US ties.

Despite a change in administration, there appears to be notable continuity in relations with Washington, building on ground work laid by the outgoing interim government.

One key agreement is the purchase of 25 Boeing aircraft, valued at $2.9 billion.

The order originated under Sheikh Hasina’s government and was continued by the interim administration.

The BNP government is expected to implement it gradually over the next decade.

Bangladesh, the world’s eighth most populous country, operates only 14 passenger aircraft.

Around 16 million passengers use Dhaka airport annually, yet the national carrier transports only a small share.

Fleet expansion is therefore framed as long-term capacity building rather than immediate fiscal strain.

More debated is the proposed $3.5 billion reciprocal trade agreement with the United States.

Public discourse has often reflected ideological perceptions of the US, but the economic fundamentals merit attention.

Bangladesh imports approximately $65 billion annually. Allocating $3.5 billion to US imports does not represent a dramatic structural shift. Major conglomerates have long sourced commodities, such as wheat, from the US.

Concerns that the agreement could lead to restructuring of loss-making state-owned enterprises in sugar, jute and paper reflect broader reform debates.

Advocates argue that corporatisation and market reforms could reduce fiscal burdens, while critics warn of social costs.

Fears that US poultry and dairy imports would overwhelm domestic producers appear commercially unlikely due to high shipping costs.

More substantive concerns relate to technology transfer and market concentration, particularly if advanced agricultural and food processing systems strengthen large domestic firms at the expense of small farmers.

The most significant potential impact lies in ready-made garments (RMG), which account for roughly 85 per cent of Bangladesh’s exports.

Zero tariffs in the US market would significantly enhance competitiveness against Indian, Vietnamese and Chinese exporters facing higher duties.

Bangladesh currently exports $8–9 billion worth of garments to the US; preferential access could raise that figure substantially.

Relations with India remain sensitive. The deterioration during the interim period was widely seen as influenced by rhetoric and media narratives on both sides, particularly in the Indian media regarding false narratives of communal conflicts in Bangladesh. 

The economic impact was particularly felt by small traders of both countries and cross-border businesses.

The BNP government now faces the task of restoring pragmatic engagement with India while maintaining its emphasis on national interest.

Beyond the US, Bangladesh has advanced a free trade agreement with Japan and signalled interest in similar arrangements with Singapore and the European Union — an important step as the country prepares for post-LDC trade realities.

The ultimate success of the BNP government’s foreign policy will depend not only on headline agreements but on disciplined implementation, diplomatic balance and sustained economic reform.

Early signals suggest a foreign policy anchored in economic pragmatism, regional recalibration and strategic continuity.

Whether this approach delivers the anticipated gains will become clearer in the months ahead.