BNP set to secure upper house majority with 49.97pc vote
Staff Reporter :
Riding on nearly half of the popular vote in the 13th National Parliamentary Election, the Bangladesh Nationalist Party is poised to secure a majority in the proposed upper house of parliament, according to the Election Commission’s latest party-wise vote calculation report released on Saturday.
The report shows the BNP received 49.97% of the total votes cast, while Bangladesh Jamaat-e-Islami garnered 31.76%.
Independent candidates secured 5.79% of the vote.
Although official results for Chattogram-2 and Chattogram-4 are yet to be declared, BNP candidates are reported to have led in both constituencies.
Analysts say once those figures are formally added, the party’s overall vote share could edge closer to or surpass the 50% mark, further consolidating its position in the upper chamber.
Under the proposed structure, the upper house would consist of 100 seats, with representation allocated to parties securing more than 1% of the total vote.
If formed strictly on the basis of vote share — as suggested in the July Charter — BNP, Jamaat, the National Citizen Party, Bangladesh Khilafat Majlis, and Islami Andolan
Bangladesh would gain representation.
However, the BNP’s election manifesto proposed that the upper house be constituted based on seats won in the lower chamber rather than overall vote share.
Among the 297 declared constituencies, BNP secured 209 seats while Jamaat won 68.
If representation is determined on a seat basis, projections suggest BNP would hold around 70 upper house seats, Jamaat 23, and the National Citizen Party two.
Seven independents were elected to the lower house; if united, they could secure up to three upper house seats under a seat-based formula.
In the lower chamber, 50 reserved seats for women will be allocated proportionately based on elected members. BNP is expected to receive at least 35 of these seats, while Jamaat may obtain around 11.
The prospect of BNP dominance in both chambers has sparked debate over whether the upper house would function as an effective check and balance mechanism.
Sabbir Ahmed, a professor of political science at University of Dhaka, said BNP’s vote share could rise further once the remaining Chattogram results are declared.
He noted that regardless of whether the upper house is formed based on votes or seats, the party’s single-party dominance is likely to continue.
Other analysts observed that Bangladesh has limited tradition of legislators voting independently of party lines.
With a two-thirds majority in the lower house, the governing party would face little resistance in passing legislation, particularly if it also commands a majority in the upper chamber.
Experts argue that in such a scenario, the upper house risks functioning primarily as a formal approval body rather than an autonomous reviewing institution, especially if one party enjoys over 51% public support.
Nonetheless, some analysts suggest that the introduction of shadow cabinets by opposition parties could strengthen parliamentary scrutiny and policy debate. Jamaat-e-Islami and the National Citizen Party have already indicated plans to form shadow cabinets.
Political scientists further note that bicameral systems are typically designed for federal states such as the United States, India and Canada, though unitary countries like the United Kingdom also maintain upper chambers.
In Bangladesh’s unitary framework, they say, the effectiveness and neutrality of a second chamber will depend less on structure and more on political culture and the governing party’s willingness to accommodate dissent.
With the BNP preparing to form the next government on the strength of its commanding mandate, the debate now turns to whether the proposed upper house will evolve into a meaningful institutional counterweight — or remain structurally constrained under single-party dominance.