Much-Awaited Polls Today: BNP eyes landslide, Jamaat brims with confidence
Reza Mahmud :
The whole nation is directly participating in the much awaiting 13thh national parliamentary elections scheduled for today with utmost festive moods as the voters get this opportunity after 17 years by ousting fascist Hasina government.
The government has ensured strict security measures across the country to conduct the huge important election in peaceful and participatory manners.
The major political party the BNP and it’s once largest ally Islamism party of the country the Jamaat-e-Islami emerged as the main competitors in today’s election.
The BNP sees landslide victory relying the party’s previous experiences and goodwill of late President Ziaur Rahman and late Prime Minister Begum Khaleda Zia.
On the other hand the Jamaat-e-Islami also showing confidence saying they have get huge supports from the young voters who seemed to dislike the previous ruling parties in the name of change after the July uprising which threw Hasina regime.
In the campaigning the BNP focusing several issues including family cards, job creations and women empowerment while the Jamaat also highlighting such issues including strengthening women’s working facilities and empowerment.
The BNP is facing some challenges especially from the party’s rival candidates while the Jamaat gets hardships from its Islamists co-warrior Islami Andolon as the Islamic party is opposing Jamaat.
Political analysts also suggested that there will be no easy win in this election as the parties get opportunities to share their views to the common people to win voters hearts.
When contacted, eminent political analyst, former Vice-Chancellor of Dhaka University, Professor Dr. Anwarullah Chowdhury on Wednesday told The New Nation, “The polls field suggested that there will be no scope of landslide victory for any political parties as the fascist free political environment brings the door open for all to win hearts of the people through expressing their plans.”
He said, the people must franchise their voting rights considering the electoral manifestos of the parties, so the scale might not be leaned towards any one entity like landslide.
When contacted, prominent political analyst Professor Dr. SM Ali Reza of Dhaka University told The New Nation on Wednesday, “As per different surveys, about 30pc floating voters are yet to clear their mind that to which party they have to choose for voting. These voters will be decisive for the election result.”
He said, the people might desire to get a vital opposition party to make the Parliament as well the democracy strong.
Amid such, the political equation surrounding the national parliamentary election is changing rapidly.
A total of 12,77,11,899 voters will cast their votes in the 13th National Parliament elections and referendum. EC data showed that of the total voters, 6,48,25,154 are male and 6,28,85,525 female, while 1,220 belong to the third gender.
The EC recently cancelled the election in Sherpur-3 constituency following the death of a Jamaat-e-Islami candidate. As a result, voting will be held in 299 constituencies instead of 300.
A total of 51 political parties are taking part in the election. The total number of candidates is 2,034, including 275 independent contestants.
The BNP has fielded the highest number of candidates with 291 contestants contesting under the Sheaf of Paddy symbol. Islami Andolon Bangladesh has fielded the second highest 258 candidates under the Hatpakha (Hand Fan) symbol. Besides, Bangladesh Jamaat-e-Islami has fielded 229 candidates under the Daripalla (Scale) symbol, Jatiya Party 198 under the Plough symbol and Jatiya Nagorik Party (NCP) 32 under the Water Lily Bud symbol.
Analysts said, while the experienced and largest political party the BNP seemed overconfident on the election victory, the internal divisions within the major parties, expectations of a change in power, the resurgence of Islamist politics, and strong grassroots organizational structures have brought Jamaat-e-Islami back into the spotlight.
Survey and analytical reports showed mixed depictions over the probable polls results. Some surveys showed the BNP is advanced towards landslide victory while the some others (surveys) pointed that Jamaat become superior in achieving significant voters’ confidence in majority constituencies.
Among the surveys one suggested the BNP will be advanced in about 60pc and Jamaat posed for around 29pc seats while the other showed the Jamaat achieves 43pc and the BNP nearly 40pc voters confidents.
Sources said, though the BNP remaining as a pivotal political party to claim victory on the polls, the Jamaat also significantly advanced to take a vast share.
Surveys showed particularly in rural and semi-urban constituencies, Jamaat’s organizational strength, voter management, and alliance strategies have placed them ahead in competition.
According to a latest report of a top intelligence agency, Jamaat has the potential to win directly in 124 constituencies across the country’s eight divisions, with an additional 12 seats possible through alliance-based victories.
That means the Jamaat-NCP alliance could potentially influence around 136 seats-nearly half of the National Parliament. However, these figures represent possibilities; the final outcome will depend on administrative neutrality and the realities on election day.
The key strengths there for Jamaat-e-Islami are mosque-based networks in suburban and rural areas; long-term organizational presence of Islami Chhatra Shibir; and coordination with other parties. However, ideological hesitation among urban voters and fragmentation of youth votes could affect the outcome.
As per the report, the BNP might bag 49 seats while the Jamaat is projected to win 15 seats in Dhaka division.
Besides, in Mymensingh division, the report showed that the BNP might win in 22 while the Jamaat is expected to secure eight seats.
Jamaat may win 21 seats in Khulna division while the BNP to pose victory in 15 entities.
The BNP is likely to win 12 while the Jamaat may secure nine seats in Barishal division.
In Rangpur Division, Jamaat may win 24 seats.
Analysts describe this region as Jamaat’s ‘surprise zone.’ Discontent among farmers and lower-middle-class voters, vote consolidation with BNP alliance partners, and the personal acceptability of local candidates make significant gains here appear realistic.
In Rajshahi Division, Jamaat could get victory in 24 and BNP may get 15 seats.
The report said that Rajshahi has traditionally been fertile ground for Islamist politics. The influence of madrassas and religious institutions, organizational discipline, and strong grassroots activists reflect the results of Jamaat’s long-term political investment in the region.
The BNP may win in 12 while the Jamaat is likely to get seven seats in Sylhet division.
Expatriate votes, religious identity, and local social leadership are major factors here. However, the presence of independent and regional candidates could cause vote fragmentation in some constituencies.
In Chattogram division, the BNP may win the majority 42 and the rest 16 seats may lead by Jamaat.