February 12 vote set to reset diplomatic trajectory

Al Mamun Harun Ur Rashid :

Foreign missions are closely watching the February 12 election as the outcome will reshape the country’s diplomatic posture, foreign trade orientation and broader economic relationships after nearly 16 years of continuity under one political system.

Sources said that diplomatic missions in Dhaka are closely analysing political speeches, election manifestos, campaign rhetoric and behind-the-scenes meetings to assess which force may take power and how future bilateral and multilateral relationships might evolve.

According to diplomatic sources, the election is no longer viewed merely as a domestic political contest but as a decisive moment that could redefine regional influence, investment flows and strategic alignments in South Asia and beyond.

Discussions surrounding the election have intensified not only among political parties and domestic stakeholders but also within foreign diplomatic circles.

Large missions are scrutinising the manifestos of major contenders, their public commitments and private assurances, seeking to anticipate policy direction on trade, security, regional cooperation and global engagement.

Officials familiar with the process say embassies are mapping out potential scenarios to determine how best to engage with the next government in ways that serve mutual interests.

For the past 16 years, foreign governments have dealt primarily with the Awami League administration, developing predictable diplomatic channels and policy expectations.

That continuity has now ended following the party’s political collapse after the July uprising in 2024, which forced many of its leaders into hiding, mostly in India.

The electoral contest has consequently narrowed, with the field largely dominated by the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) and Jamaat-e-Islami and their alliance partners.

From a diplomatic perspective, BNP is seen as a familiar actor. Having governed for extended periods in the past, its foreign policy instincts, institutional memory and engagement style are well known to major powers, analysts said.

Diplomats believe that under a BNP-led government, relations with the United States, China, India and Pakistan would likely remain stable, with adjustments rather than abrupt shifts.

BNP’s manifesto statement that Bangladesh seeks “friends, not masters” has resonated within foreign missions as a signal of balanced diplomacy without overt alignment.

Jamaat-e-Islami, by contrast, is viewed as an emerging force with limited experience in state-level diplomacy. This has generated particular curiosity and caution among foreign governments.

Diplomatic sources say there is uncertainty about how Jamaat would frame relations with major powers, manage economic partnerships or navigate sensitive regional issues if it were to form a government.

Regional dynamics are also shaping diplomatic calculations. The Rohingya crisis remains a critical issue, with Myanmar seeking a government in Dhaka that allows for predictable engagement.

Analysts note that BNP’s previous experience in handling the issue is seen as an asset.

Pakistan, meanwhile, is expected to maintain positive ties regardless of whether BNP or Jamaat assumes power.

Relations between Dhaka and Islamabad have already improved during the interim government period, and observers believe this trend is likely to continue.

China and the United States are equally attentive. BNP’s historical ties with Beijing date back to the era of President Ziaur Rahman, while its longstanding engagement with Washington also offers a sense of familiarity.

Diplomats from both countries are therefore assessing how a potential BNP administration might recalibrate economic cooperation, infrastructure projects and strategic dialogue.

Against this backdrop, foreign diplomats have significantly increased political engagement.

In recent weeks, ambassadors from the United States, China, the United Kingdom, the European Union and Pakistan have held meetings with senior leaders of BNP, Jamaat-e-Islami and other parties, as well as with election authorities and interim government advisers.

These discussions have consistently emphasised expectations for a free, fair, inclusive and peaceful election.

US Ambassador Brent Christensen has met BNP chairperson Tarique Rahman, Jamaat Ameer Shafiqur Rahman, Home Affairs Adviser Jahangir Alam Chowdhury and Chief Election Commissioner AMM Nasir Uddin.

During these meetings, he sought updates on election security and preparations, while reiterating Washington’s interest in a democratic and credible process.

Chinese Ambassador Yao Wen has also held talks with BNP, Jamaat and National Citizen Party leaders, conveying Beijing’s intention to deepen relations with whichever government emerges.

EU Ambassador Michael Miller and Pakistan’s High Commissioner Imran Haider have similarly engaged across the political spectrum.

Diplomatic interest has extended to party manifestos. BNP’s manifesto launch was attended by diplomats from 38 countries, reflecting keen interest in its foreign policy orientation.

Representatives from China, Pakistan, the EU, the US, India, Russia and the UK were present, underscoring the international weight attached to the election.
International attention is not limited to Dhaka-based missions.

Senior US Congress members Joe Wilson and Nile Powe have written to Secretary of State Marco Rubio, urging active US engagement to support a free, fair and secure election.

The United Nations has also stressed the importance of ensuring an environment where all citizens can participate peacefully and freely express political views.

Besides, the European Union has deployed around 200 election observers, with chief observer Evers Izabs arriving in Dhaka to oversee the mission.

EU observers will monitor the entire process, from voting to ballot counting and result tabulation, and will issue a preliminary assessment on February 14.

More than 540 foreign observers and journalists, according to the Election Commission, are arriving in Dhaka to cover and monitor the vote including global media outlets such as the BBC, Reuters, AP and Al Jazeera.

As Foreign Affairs Adviser Touhid Hossain recently noted, interactions between diplomats and political actors have become part of Bangladesh’s political culture.

“It has become part of our culture that members of the diplomatic community discuss these issues.

At times, I feel a large section of our society also wants them to speak about it. So I cannot blame them. It has become part of our culture.”

Experts said foreign missions cannot overlook the election, as it will determine which party comes to power.

They therefore engage with political parties to assess how a future government may recalibrate its foreign relations in an increasingly multipolar world.