More than 47pc for Tarique, 22.5pc back Shafique as PM: Survey

Staff Reporter :

Support for the BNP is strengthening as the election approaches, with more than 47 percent of respondents now viewing party chairperson Tarique Rahman as the most likely future prime minister, according to the latest round of a public opinion survey conducted by Innovation Consulting.

The findings were released on Friday at an event held at the BDBL Building in Karwan Bazar, Dhaka, where Innovation Consulting Managing Director Rubaiyat Sarwar presented the results of the People’s Election Pulse Survey (PEPS).

The nationwide poll was conducted with support from two civic platforms—BRAIN and Voice for Reform.

The third round of the survey indicates that BNP’s growing support has come partly from voters who previously backed Jamaat-e-Islami or the National Citizen Party (NCP), as well as from a significant segment of former Awami League supporters.

The Awami League, which was ousted from power in the July uprising, is barred from contesting the 13th parliamentary election scheduled for February 12 due to a ban on its activities and the suspension of its registration with the Election Commission.

According to the survey, 47.6 percent of respondents believe that Tarique Rahman is likely to become Bangladesh’s next prime minister.

Jamaat-e-Islami Ameer Dr Shafiqur Rahman was named by 22.5 percent of respondents, while 2.7 percent mentioned NCP leader Nahid Islam. Meanwhile, 22.2 percent said they were unable to predict who would become prime minister.

The survey report notes that following Tarique Rahman’s return to the country and the death of BNP chairperson Khaleda Zia, a significant portion of previously undecided voters have shifted towards the BNP.

On constituency-level expectations, 52.9 percent of respondents said that a BNP candidate would likely win in their respective areas if the election were held immediately, while 23.8 percent said they were uncertain.

Compared with the second round of PEPS, the proportion of respondents identifying BNP candidates as likely winners has increased by 7.5 percentage points. Jamaat-e-Islami also saw a modest increase of 1.1 percentage points.

The third round of PEPS was conducted via telephone interviews with participants from the first and second rounds. A total of 5,147 interviews were completed between January 16 and 27, covering both urban and rural areas across all 64 districts.

Respondents were surveyed on six key issues: voter turnout, public opinion on the referendum, law and order, perceptions of electoral neutrality, voting decisions and party preference.

With the Awami League absent from the electoral race, the survey examined where its former voters may shift their support.

The findings show that 32.9 percent of previous Awami League voters said they were likely to vote for the BNP, while 13.2 percent indicated support for Jamaat-e-Islami. A further 41.3 percent said they remained undecided.

The report also found that some voters who previously supported Jamaat-e-Islami or the NCP have moved towards the BNP, while a notable share of undecided voters are also now leaning towards the party.

Of BNP’s projected 52.8 percent vote share, 26.6 percentage points are estimated to come from voters who were previously undecided or did not express a preference.

In comparison, 14.1 percentage points of Jamaat’s projected 31 percent vote share are drawn from the same group.

The survey suggests greater volatility within Jamaat’s voter base than the BNP’s in the third round, with some Jamaat supporters declining to disclose their voting preference. It also indicates that Jamaat’s alliance with the NCP may have contributed to a shift of some NCP votes towards the BNP.

When asked about the likely final vote outcome, respondents who expressed a preference estimated that the BNP could secure 52.8 percent of the vote, while Jamaat and its alliance partners could receive 31 percent. About 13.2 percent of respondents did not disclose their preference.

The survey also examined public opinion on the constitutional referendum scheduled to be held alongside the parliamentary election, as mandated by the July Charter.

According to the findings, nearly 60 percent of respondents said they would vote “yes” in the referendum, while 22 percent said they were unaware of the issue.

The report notes variations in awareness and opinion on the referendum across demographic and political groups, highlighting differing levels of engagement with the proposed constitutional reforms.