Iran-backed militias in Iraq, Yemen
AP :
Two Iranian-backed militias in the Mideast are signaling their willingness to launch new attacks, likely trying to back Iran, as officials acknowledged the arrival of a U.S. aircraft carrier to the region Monday.
President Donald Trump ordered the carriers to move to the Middle East as he threatened military action over its crackdown on nationwide protests.
Yemen’s Iranian-backed Houthi rebels on Monday hinted they were ready to resume attacks on shipping in the Red Sea.
That came just after Iraq’s Kataib Hezbollah paramilitary group, long supported by Iran’s paramilitary Revolutionary Guard, issued a direct threat late Sunday toward any attack targeting Iran, warning a “total war” in the region would be a result.
The statements came as the entire region is mired in a tense waiting game to see if Trump will strike. Kataib Hezbollah sat out from Israel’s 12-day war on Iran in June that saw the United States bomb Iranian nuclear sites, while the Houthis fired missiles at Israel during that period.
The hesitancy to get fully involved shows the disarray still affecting Iran’s self-described “Axis of Resistance” after facing attacks from Israel during its war on Hamas in the Gaza Strip.
US carrier arrives in region
The threats came as the aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln and other guided missile destroyers in its strike group arrived in the region to “promote regional security and stability,” U.S. Central Command said Monday on social media.
Trump has said the ships are being moved “just in case” he decides to take action against Iran.
He has already laid out two red lines for attack – the killing of peaceful protesters and Tehran conducting mass executions of those it has arrested in a massive crackdown over the demonstrations.
A senior Iranian military official who spoke anonymously on Iran’s state TV dismissed the American threat as “an exaggeration” and noted that Iran had increased its military presence in response.
The official added that the Lincoln’s presence was not a deterrent but an accessible target.
Threats from Iraq, Yemen, while Hezbollah stays mum
Iran projected its power across the Mideast through the “Axis of Resistance,” a network of proxy militant groups in Gaza, Lebanon, Yemen, Syria, and Iraq, and other places.
It was also seen as a defensive buffer, intended to keep conflict away from Iranian borders.
But it has collapsed after Israel targeted Hamas, Hezbollah in Lebanon and others during the Gaza war. Meanwhile, rebels in 2024 overthrew Syria’s Bashar Assad after a yearslong, bloody war in which Iran backed his rule.
The Lebanese militant group Hezbollah, one of Iran’s staunchest allies, refused to say how it planned to react in the case of a possible attack.
“During the past two months, several parties have asked me a clear and frank question: If Israel and America go to war against Iran, will Hezbollah intervene or not?” Hezbollah leader Sheikh Naim Kassem said via a video address to thousands of supporters gathered in Beirut’s southern suburbs for a rally backing Iran.
He said the group is preparing for “possible aggression and is determined to defend” against it.
But as to how it would act, he said, “these details will be determined by the battle and we will determine them according to the interests that are present.”
Iraqi and Yemeni militant groups were much more forthright in their threats, which were interpreted as support for Iran. A short video by the Houthis included images of a ship on fire, with the caption: “Soon.”
It later aired footage Monday from its January 2024 attack in the Gulf of Aden on the Marshall Islands-flagged tanker Marlin Luanda, one of over 100 ships attacked as part of a campaign the Houthis said pressured Israel over its war against Hamas in the Gaza Strip.
The Houthis halted their fire after a ceasefire in Gaza, though they’ve repeatedly warned they could resume fire if needed.
Meanwhile, Ahmad “Abu Hussein” al-Hamidawi of Kataib Hezbollah issued his own threat in a statement.
“We affirm to the enemies that the war on the (Islamic) Republic will not be a picnic; rather, you will taste the bitterest forms of death, and nothing will remain of you in our region,” he said.
The United Arab Emirates announced on Monday that it would not allow its airspace, territory or territorial waters to be used for military action against Iran. The UAE said it would stress dialogue and diplomatic resolutions.
Iran warns America not to attack
Iranian Defense Ministry spokesperson Gen. Reza Talaei-Nik renewed warnings Monday to both Israel and the U.S., saying any attack would “be met with a response that is more painful and more decisive than in the past.”
Iranian state TV quoted Talaei-Nik as saying that threats required Iran “to maintain full and comprehensive preparedness.”
Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei separately told journalists: “Regional countries fully know that any security breach in the region will not affect Iran only. The lack of security is contagious.”
Iran over the weekend unveiled a new banner in Tehran’s Enghelab Square threatening the Lincoln, showing an aircraft carrier strewn with bodies and streaked with blood with the warning: “If you sow the wind, you will reap the whirlwind.”
However, Iran is still reeling from the 12-day war in June in which its air defense systems were broadly destroyed, top military leaders killed, and its nuclear enrichment sites bombed by the U.S.
As a sign of concern over its airspace, Iran issued a notice to pilots Sunday that banned small private aircraft from flying in the country, with carve-outs for the oil industry and emergency medical flights.
Many Western airlines have started to avoid Iranian airspace entirely due to the tensions, though Gulf Arab carriers flying to Moscow still rely on the route.
Iranian air defense troops in 2020 shot down a Ukrainian commercial airliner, killing 176 people on board.
Death toll rises from protest crackdown The protests in Iran began on Dec. 28, sparked by the fall of the Iranian currency, the rial, and quickly spread across the country.
They were met by a violent crackdown by Iran’s theocracy, the scale of which is only starting to become clear as the country has faced more than two-week internet blackout – the most comprehensive in its history.
The U.S.-based Human Rights Activists News Agency on Monday put the death toll at 5,973, with the number expected to increase. It says more than 41,813 people have been arrested.
The group’s figures have been accurate in previous unrest and rely on a network of activists in Iran to verify deaths.
That death toll exceeds that of any other round of protest or unrest there in decades, and recalls the chaos surrounding Iran’s 1979 Islamic Revolution. The Associated Press has not been able to independently verify the toll.
Iran’s government has put the death toll at a far lower 3,117, saying 2,427 were civilians and security forces, and labeled the rest “terrorists.” In the past, Iran’s theocracy has undercounted or not reported fatalities from unrest.