Jul–Nov revenue falls short of target by Tk24,000cr

Staff Reporter :

The National Board of Revenue (NBR) recorded a year-on-year revenue growth of over 15percent during the first five months of FY2025-26, but collections still fell short of the target by Tk24,047 crore.

According to NBR statistics, revenue collected from July to November totaled Tk148,976 crore, against a target of Tk173,023 crore.

In November alone, collections lagged by approximately Tk6,667 crore, although they rose slightly over 14percent compared to the same month in the previous fiscal year.

Officials and analysts have attributed the large gap between actual collections and the target to the unusually ambitious revenue goals. Many experts argue that the budget-set targets were unrealistic, and the situation has been exacerbated by a recent upward revision.

Typically, mid-year target revisions involve lowering goals, but this fiscal year is an exception. The government raised the FY2025-26 revenue target by Tk55,000 crore, from Tk4.99 lakh crore to Tk5.54 lakh crore, an increase of roughly 11percent . Compared to FY2024-25 collections, achieving the new target would require a 49 percent rise, which experts consider nearly impossible.

Data from NBR shows that the average monthly revenue collection over the past five months was Tk34,604 crore. To meet the revised target, monthly collections of nearly Tk58,000 crore will be necessary in the remaining months.

Analysis of revenue sources indicates that VAT collections showed relatively strong growth of around 22 percent during the five-month period. Income tax collections rose by 17 percent, while import tax growth lagged, increasing by just over 5 percent.

Experts warn that without substantial reforms or improved compliance, the gap between actual collections and targets may widen further, potentially resulting in a record shortfall by the end of the fiscal year.