What history says about such close earthquake to Dhaka?

Staff Reporter :

The epicentre of the earthquake that struck at 10:38am was located only 13 kilometres east of the Bangladesh Meteorological Department (BMD) headquarters in Dhaka’s Agargaon.
Originating in Madhabdi of Narsingdi, the 5.7-magnitude quake has already claimed at least six lives-including three in Old Dhaka-and left more than a hundred people injured.
Reports indicate that several hundred buildings in the capital have tilted.

Earthquake researchers say Dhaka has never experienced a quake of this magnitude with an epicentre so near. They also caution that had the shaking continued for just a few more seconds, the scale of casualties and the number of building collapses could have raised dramatically.
Md Momenul Islam, director (current charge) of BMD, said journalists the epicentre was extremely close to Dhaka, which is why the tremor felt so intense.

He explained that even earthquakes exceeding magnitude 7 in Rangamati or Khagrachhari do not usually shake Dhaka this strongly. “If this quake had lasted another 5-7 seconds, a significant number of buildings in Dhaka would have collapsed. An event of this intensity, this close to Dhaka, is unprecedented.”

A2024 study by Rajdhani Unnayan Kartripakkha (Rajuk) warns that if a 6.9-magnitude earthquake strikes the Madhupur fault in Tangail, between 40.28% and 64.83% of Dhaka’s buildings could collapse.
Projected fatalities vary by time of day: Morning: 2.1-3.1 lakh, Afternoon: 2.7-4 lakh, Night: 3.2-5 lakh, Similarly, a 7.1-magnitude quake along the Sylhet lineament could damage between 40,935 and 3.14 lakh buildings (1.91%-14.66%), the study finds.
Under Rajuk’s jurisdiction, Dhaka has more than 21.5 lakh buildings, including 5.14 lakh concrete structures. Of 3,252 buildings surveyed, 42 were identified as high-risk and recommended for demolition.
Experts point to multiple factors that make Dhaka extremely vulnerable: One of the world’s most densely populated cities. Thousands of poorly constructed high-rises. Narrow streets and congested neighbourhoods. Widespread non-compliance with seismic building codes. Soft, waterlogged soil prone to liquefaction during strong tremors. And lack of public awareness, earthquake drills, and rapid response systems.
Historically, the region has faced devastating earthquakes.
The 1897 Great Indian Earthquake (magnitude 8.0) killed over 1,500 people in undivided Bengal.The 1918 Srimangal Earthquake (magnitude 7.6) caused severe destruction. Previous earthquakes near Dhaka.
Earthquakes with epicentres in or around Dhaka include: 18 March 2012: 4.5 magnitude. 26 July 2008: 4.8 magnitude. 19 December 2001: 4.5 magnitude
None caused significant casualties.
Another notable recent event was a 6.2-magnitude quake in Chattogram on 26 November 2011.
According to the Comprehensive Disaster Management Programme (CDMP), a 7.5-magnitude earthquake could collapse 72,000 buildings and severely damage 1.5 lakh more.
Old buildings on weak soil and high-rise structures built without following seismic codes would face the highest risk.