By Professor Dr. Ahmad Kamruzzaman Majumder
On the eighth day of COP30, high-level political discussions commenced in Belem; nevertheless, the negotiations are progressing slowly amid urgent appeals from vulnerable nations for prompt action to address the climate crisis. Political intervention is now needed to bridge the divide on climate finance, adaptation, fossil fuel transition, gender and equity. After overcoming the technical difficulties of the first week, the responsibility is now in their hands to break the deadlock on fossil fuel withdrawal, loss and damage funds and global financing structures. The devastation caused by Hurricane Melissa in Jamaica has caused more than $10 billion in damage and massive displacement across the country in less than 24 hours, the country has reiterated its demand for rich countries to reduce emissions and increase financial assistance to poor countries. Cuba, Mauritius and other island nations have also said that the damage caused by climate change is now their daily reality and that it is a “moral duty” to address it. UN climate chief Simon Steele and the Brazilian leadership have also warned that every extra bit of global warming is catastrophic for human life and the economy. Meanwhile, while progress has been made on some technical issues like agriculture, food security and disaster risk reduction funds – key aspects of carbon markets, gender dialogue, just transitions and adaptation programs are still stalled. The most contentious areas finance, trade, transparency and the weakness of current NDCs – have seen little progress. Brazil’s COP president has published a note to provide possible guidance, suggesting a roadmap for strengthening NDCs.
At COP30, South Korea announced that it would phase out all coal-fired power plants by 2040 and join the “Powering Past Coal Alliance”. The decision by the world’s fourth-largest coal importer has raised serious concerns about the future of Australia’s fossil fuel exports. South Korea currently imports about A$2.3 billion worth of coal from Australia annually. Analysts say Korea’s move risks long-term dependence on fossil fuel exports, a major player in the Asia-Pacific region. According to an analysis by the Australian Treasury, the country’s fossil fuel exports could fall by almost half in the next five years. Experts have advised Australia to focus on green industries, such as iron, aluminum and key minerals using green technology. Australia has set a target of getting 82% of its electricity from renewable sources by 2030. On the other hand, Saudi Arabia continues to block decisions taken at COP30 to achieve a just transition. A group of countries, including the United Kingdom, the European Union and small island states, have proposed a new report based on key data from previous reports, which will outline ways to limit temperature rise and emissions to 1.5 degrees Celsius. Influential Arab group members Saudi Arabia and the African Group have opposed including such data. However, Colombia, a member of the Fossil Fuels Non-Proliferation Treaty initiative, has announced plans to host the first international conference on ending fossil fuels in April next year.
More than 200 human rights and environmental groups have accused UN climate chief Simon Steele of encouraging state repression of indigenous peoples at climate talks. The open letter accuses Steele of creating a chilling threat and a sense of insecurity for indigenous peoples, civil society defenders of the environment and other human rights, and activists who stand up for them.
The large presence of the industrial agriculture sector at COP30, held in the Brazilian Amazon, has put major pressure on the transparency, fairness and effectiveness of the climate talks. A report found that more than 300 lobbyists representing the interests of deforestation and food production sectors attended, a 14% increase compared to last year’s Baku conference. A significant portion of these are government delegations, who have privileged access to key policy-making areas of the talks. Researchers warn that without changes in sectors such as livestock farming, industrial food production and pesticide use, the 2015 Paris Agreement goals, particularly limiting warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius, will be impossible. Cattle farming and industrial animal feed production have been identified as major drivers of deforestation in the Amazon, which is fueling water scarcity, land clearing and biodiversity loss. Experts warn that a fair, sustainable and climate-resilient food system cannot be built unless control and access by large agribusiness corporations and lobbyists are limited.
At COP30, civil society activists are wearing badges in support of the Belém Action Mechanism (BAM) to reinforce demands for climate justice. While the idea of a Just Transition originally emerged from the labor movement, it now encompasses all sectors affected by climate policy, including energy, minerals, agriculture, and frontline communities. While the Paris Agreement recognizes a Just Transition in its preamble, it does not mandate its implementation. According to supporters, BAM will fill this gap, encouraging countries to track progress on the Just Transition, strengthen coordination, share technology and best practices, and support implementation, especially in low-income countries.
Indigenous representatives are visible in the conference’s Blue Zone, but their role in the discussions is limited; they are largely observers. Their demands include protecting the Amazon, ending fossil fuels, and resisting a global monoculture. However, indigenous peoples are marginalized by the large, powerful delegations. Indigenous Guarani Kaiwa leader Vicente Fernandes Villalba was shot dead on Sunday morning, highlighting once again Brazil’s long and shameful record of violence against land rights and environmental defenders.
Climate finance is a major concern for developing countries; Bangladesh’s head of delegation, Farida Akhtar, described it as a matter of life and death and demanded that the money reach people at risk directly. Delays and debt-based proposals to implement the $300 billion pledge announced last year have added to frustration. UN climate chief Simon Steele said there is “will but no momentum.” The Brazilian presidency’s draft outline includes proposals to strengthen NDCs and transition away from fossil fuels, but major producer countries are adamant in their objections. There is also much disagreement over whether the final document will include the word “phase-out,” especially given the presence of more than 1,000 fossil fuel lobbyists.
While artificial intelligence (AI) is often criticized for its high energy consumption and high emissions, some experts at COP30 are arguing that AI can be repurposed as a positive force in tackling the climate crisis. The United Nations and Brazil have launched a new AI Climate Institute to help developing countries use AI to solve environmental problems and reduce emissions. Supporters say AI could help improve agriculture, transport and energy management, and make weather forecasts and disaster risk analysis more accurate. Some studies suggest that using AI could reduce global greenhouse gas emissions by 3.2–5.4 billion tons over the next decade. However, many experts disagree. The rapid spread of generative AI is increasing data center electricity and water costs and emissions. A study by Cornell University found that if AI continues at its current rate in the United States, it could cause an additional 44 million tons of CO₂ emissions by 2030.
Critics say AI is never a substitute for phasing out fossil fuels. Instead, the same technology could help extract more oil, which would exacerbate the climate crisis. They say that “AI for good” initiatives may have some benefits, but they are part of a largely profit-driven industry.
[The writer is a Dean, Faculty of Science; Professor, Department of Environmental Science, Stamford University Bangladesh; and Chairman, Center for Atmospheric Pollution Studies (CAPS).]
