Shifting geopolitics put Ganges water deal at risk

News Desk :

With the Ganges Water Sharing Treaty between India and Bangladesh set to expire in December 2026, the stakes are rising for both nations as climate pressures and regional politics intensify.

The 1996 treaty, which governs the dry-season flow of the Ganges River at the Farakka Barrage, was a landmark agreement allocating water equitably between the two countries. However, experts say it is now outdated and unfit to manage current challenges, particularly in the face of erratic river flows, upstream diversions, and increased water stress on both sides.

India and Bangladesh share 54 transboundary rivers, but the Ganges remains the only one with a formal water-sharing accord. The treaty’s expiry comes at a time when monsoon patterns are shifting, glaciers feeding the river are retreating, and political relationships are under strain, reports Channel News Asia.

“The treaty is no longer adequate for today’s hydrological realities,” said Malik Fida A Khan, executive director of Dhaka-based CEGIS. “The river’s flow now varies by 30 per cent – up from just 13 per cent in the 1960s – posing significant challenges for fixed allocation models.”

Under the current agreement, water is shared based on ten-day averages during the dry season, measured at Farakka in India, just 10km upstream from the Bangladesh border. But experts argue that relying on decades-old flow data can no longer ensure fair and sustainable distribution in a time of climate volatility.

Bangladesh, which receives about 31 per cent of its surface water from the Ganges, faces serious water security challenges, including extreme floods, droughts, and salinity intrusion in its coastal areas. In July, the country became the first in South Asia to join the United Nations Water Convention – signalling a push for more transparent, multilateral water cooperation.

“The move reflects Bangladesh’s increasing focus on equitable water sharing,” said Sonja Koeppel, secretary of the UN convention. “We hope it encourages broader regional cooperation in South Asia, where transboundary collaboration has lagged.”

Complicating matters further are shifting geopolitical alliances. India is wary of Bangladesh’s closer engagement with China, highlighted by recent high-level visits and economic agreements. Meanwhile, India itself faces growing internal water demands, with state governments such as West Bengal and Bihar calling for greater control over Ganges waters.

“There is a growing securitisation of water in South Asia,” said Prof Ashok Swain of Uppsala University. “Hydropolitics is now intertwined with national identity and regional power dynamics.”
Calls are growing for a new treaty that moves beyond bilateral bargaining and instead reflects adaptive, science-based management. Proposals include incorporating real-time data sharing, joint river basin institutions, and clauses for ecological flow protection at key downstream points like Hardinge Bridge in Bangladesh.

Aparna Roy, a climate policy expert at the Centre for New Economic Diplomacy in New Delhi, emphasised the need for a “living agreement” that includes mechanisms for early warning, groundwater recharge, flood management and navigation. “Water must be reframed not as a zero-sum security issue, but as a shared resource requiring cooperation,” she said.

Despite the challenges, analysts believe there is still an opportunity for both countries to craft a more equitable and climate-resilient agreement. Built-in dispute resolution, as seen in the Indus Waters Treaty between India and Pakistan, and the cooperative model of the Mekong River Commission, offer useful templates.

“Climate doesn’t negotiate – but nations must,” Roy added. “If India and Bangladesh can rise above political tensions and focus on shared survival, the Ganges could become a symbol of regional cooperation rather than conflict.”

Negotiations are expected to begin later this year following the formation of a joint technical committee, though political transitions in Dhaka and competing national priorities in New Delhi may affect timelines.
As the treaty deadline approaches, the cost of inaction could be high – not only for the people reliant on the river, but for long-term peace and stability in the region.