The credibility of BBS statistics must be ensured

The credibility of the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS) is crucial for information decision making and accurate policy implementation.

Recently it has released provisional estimates of gross domestic product (GDP) and per capita income based on data from the first nine months of the current fiscal year.

BBS data shows that the country’s GDP growth has slowed to 3.97 percent during these months. However, it added the per capita income has increased to $2,820, an all-time high.

But the question remains as to how acceptable this calculation is. One reason for this is that the BBS has not yet been able to publish reliable statistics on the size of the country’s economy or GDP.

Although nine months have passed since the interim government took office, there has been no overall initiative to correct the exaggerated statistics.

After the fall of the Awami League government in a mass uprising by students last August, there are expectations that the country’s exaggerated economic statistics will be revised.

The latest GDP estimate by BBS put the country’s GDP at $459 billion. However, economists and experts disagree with this information.

According to them, the actual size of the country’s GDP could be between $300-350 billion. Now the government agency BBS itself is saying that growth has fallen below 4 percent.

But without the actual GDP calculation, there is still room for questioning this government agency’s calculation.

Meanwhile, the World Bank (WB) had forecast that GDP growth would be 3.3 percent in the current fiscal year. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) had predicted that GDP growth would be 3.8 percent.

Another donor agency, the Asian Development Bank (ADB), said that Bangladesh could see GDP growth of 3.9 percent in the current fiscal year.

Again, an increase in per capita income does not mean that the standard of living of the country’s people has improved. It is important to remember that per capita income is not the income of a single person.

For the sake of the economy, the government should give importance to accurate statistics of BBS before formulating any policy. It is important to resolve this crisis because even after many years of independence, we have not been able to create a credible statistical system.

While the world is talking about happiness beyond growth, sadly we are discussing the credibility of GDP statistics, which is disappointing. If we do not turn around from this situation now, the economic crisis in the country will increase in the future.