Staff Reporter :
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has reaffirmed Bangladesh’s economic growth forecast at 3.8 per cent for the fiscal year 2024-2025 (FY25), unchanged from its December 2024 projection.
However, the global lender anticipates a stronger recovery in the following year, projecting a 6.5 per cent growth rate for FY2025-2026 (FY26).
The figures were released in the IMF’s latest edition of the World Economic Outlook, published on 22 April.
Despite the projected rebound in FY26, the IMF expects inflation to remain elevated in the current fiscal year, reaching 10 per cent, before declining to 5.2 per cent in the subsequent year.
Notably, this year’s inflation projection is a slight improvement from the Fund’s earlier estimate of 11 per cent made in December.
The IMF’s outlook comes on the heels of a similar, albeit slightly more optimistic, forecast by the Asian Development Bank (ADB). In its recent Asian Development Outlook (ADO), the ADB projected Bangladesh’s economy to grow by 3.9 per cent in FY25, followed by 5.1 per cent growth in FY26. The ADB also warned of persistent inflation, forecasting an average rate of 10.2 per cent in FY25, easing to 8 per cent in the next fiscal year.
The Manila-based development bank attributed the prolonged inflationary pressure to systemic inefficiencies, including weak regulatory frameworks, limited competition in wholesale markets, inadequate market information, supply chain bottlenecks, and continued depreciation of the taka.
Meanwhile, the government had earlier revised its own GDP growth forecast in December 2024, lowering it to 5.25 per cent for FY25 from the initial target of 6.75 per cent. The revision was driven by a combination of factors, including the ongoing financial crisis, a slowdown in business activity, and political uncertainty following the recent change in government.
Both multilateral agencies emphasise the need for structural reforms and stabilisation measures to support macroeconomic resilience and restore investor confidence in the face of inflationary pressures and subdued growth.
