Will China replace US as world leader?

Deutsche Welle :

US Vice President JD Vance’s participation at this year’s Munich Security Conference drew a lot of attention and international focus, particularly from European leaders.
US President Donald Trump’s return to the White House has made the leaders of the EU countries quite nervous, and the feeling of uncertainty was quite palpable at the conference. Therefore, all eyes were focused on Vance as to how he would allay those concerns.
If anything, Vance’s Munich Security Conference speech on Friday only made matters worse. His sharp criticism of Europe irked many participants, with German Defense Minister Pistorius calling his remarks “unacceptable.” His comments on the Russia-Ukraine war prompted Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to suggest that the “decades-old relationship between Europe and America is now ending.”
Meanwhile Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi, who also spoke at the Munich Security Conference, used a more accommodating and reconciliatory tone to address Europeans. He said that his country sees Europe as a partner, not a rival, and offered to play a “constructive role” in the Ukraine-Russia peace talks.
Wang Yi told German Chancellor Olaf Scholz China was willing to deepen “all-round cooperation” with Germany as part of positive bilateral efforts to maintain global peace and stability.
While the US under Trump increasingly looks inwards, withdrawing from international forums and treaties and threatening to quit Nato, China is appearing to be getting more involved in global affairs.
Does this mean that Beijing could replace Washington as the global arbiter?
“There is no question in my view that as a rising power, China wants to be all it can be,” Graham Allison, professor of government at Harvard University and China expert, told DW on the sidelines of the Munich Security Conference. “If the US withdraws from trade agreements, countries that want trade agreements in order to grow economically, for instance China, would fill this vacuum,” he added.
Allison underlined that if Trump keeps leaving international institutions, “China will be a champion. Chinese President Xi Jinping has noticed that there is a lot of opportunity out there, and if the US plays its hand badly, it makes easier for Beijing to be successful.”
China has been investing heavily in many parts of the world, including Asia and Africa, which has increased its clout in these regions in the past decades. Be it Afghanistan or the Middle East, China has used its influence to mediate conflicts there.
Yao Yang, director of the China Centre for Economic Research at Peking University, told DW that Europe needs to adopt an independent policy towards China, should it want to forge closer ties.
“If the US [under Trump] wants to give more priority to its domestic issues, then Europe should do the same,” Yao said. “It should do so it for its defense, for its security, and for its foreign policy. There is a huge space for China and Europe to collaborate on.”
But China’s close relationship with Russia could be a hindrance in this regard. Beijing recently welcomed Trump’s move to reach out to his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin to end the war in Ukraine and said it was willing to play its role.
“China wants to present itself as a peacemaker, that it is not in favor of wars, and that it wants to be involved in ending wars,” according to Allison.
Yao believes that ending Russia’s war in Ukraine is in China’s economic interest. “China trades with both Russia and Ukraine. So Beijing would definitely want to push for peace in that region,” he underlined
But for Europe to trust China, it would be crucial that Xi won’t support a deal that goes against its own interests.
Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi tried to assure European leaders in Munich that it can be trusted, and that peace can be achieved in Ukraine if all stakeholders participate in negotiations.