Can Arab nations stop Trump’s ‘Gaza Riviera’ plans?

Deutsche Welle :

The proposal apparently used by US President Donald Trump to come up with his controversial idea about a “Gaza Riviera” actually sounds appealing.
Media reports suggest Trump’s idea was based on a 49-page document drawn up by Washington-based economics professor Joseph Pelzman last summer. His plan for Gaza included renewable energy, a light rail system, airports and harbors, digital governance and beachfront hotels.
Reconstruction is clearly necessary in Gaza. After over a year of Israeli bombardment – retaliation for the October 7, 2023, resistance campaign by the Gaza-based group, Hamas – much of the enclave is in ruins. A fragile ceasefire is in effect.
But in order to make his plan happen, Gaza needs to be “completely emptied out,” Pelzman said during a podcast last August. The US “can lean on Egypt” to accept refugees from Gaza because the country is in debt to the US, he suggested.
Trump appears to have been convinced. That’s despite some major problems with the plan. There are questions as to who would finance such a grand design. And then there’s convincing around 2 million Palestinians to leave their homes and never return, something that could be classified as ethnic cleansing.
Most governments in the Middle East have condemned the idea. Egypt and Jordan, countries Trump suggested could host millions of Palestinians, are not happy either.
After an uncomfortable visit to Washington this week, King Abdullah II of Jordan posted comments on social media in which he “reiterated Jordan’s steadfast position against the displacement of Palestinians in Gaza and the West Bank.”
Egypt’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs did similar, announcing its intention to present a plan “that ensures the Palestinian people remain in their homeland.”
Trump has argued that Egypt and Jordan, who both receive billions in foreign aid and military support from the US, would have no choice.
What, if anything, could those countries do to stop the controversial “Gaza Riviera” plan?
Jordan is one of the US’ closest allies in the region and signed a defense cooperation agreement in 2021, allowing American forces, vehicles and aircraft to enter and move around Jordan freely.
Experts say forcing Palestinian refugees into Jordan poses an “existential threat” to the country’s royal-family-led government. Should the Jordanian government fall, that sort of security cooperation would also be endangered.
Jordan also fears that if 2 million Palestinians from Gaza are forced into Egypt, then the 3 million Palestinians living in the occupied West Bank, which borders Jordan, might be next.
Egypt has said that if Israel tries to push Palestinians into its Sinai Peninsula, it would end its long-standing peace treaty with Israel.
There have also been reports of an Egyptian military buildup in Sinai – although it’s unclear whether this is a direct reaction to Trump’s statements. Egyptian forces are stationed there anyway because of extremists operating in the remote area.
Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sissi has also postponed a planned visit to Washington.
So-called normalization with Israel no longer seems to be on the table either, even though Saudi-Israeli detente was a particular goal of the first Trump administration. However, in recent months, the Saudis have consistently said they won’t agree to this unless a clear path toward Palestinian statehood opens up.
There are also other kinds of leverage Arab leaders might consider, such as intelligence cooperation with the US, American access to Egypt’s Suez Canal and the financial support from Gulf States for Trump investments in the region, as well close ties between Saudi Arabia and the private equity firm of Trump son-in-law Jared Kushner.
‘None of the Arab countries want to be on a collision course with Trump’
But, as experts told DW, its unlikely Arab states will use any of that to stop Trump’s plans for Gaza.
“The real leverage is, first and foremost, reality,” said Brian Katulis, a senior fellow at the Washington-based Middle East Institute. “The reality of the situation is going to prevent this.”
There are almost-insurmountable logistical issues that need to be considered, said Katulis – that includes Hamas’ ongoing presence in Gaza. “So unless Trump wants a Mogadishu on the Mediterranean – like in 1992, when our troops were pinned down in Somalia – this just isn’t happening,” he explained.
The second sort of leverage Arab nations have is their growing unity in opposing the idea and pressing for a two-state solution, Katulis argued.
“None of the Arab countries want to be on a collision course with Trump, especially at the beginning of his term,” said Ahmed Aboudouh, a foreign affairs expert with the Middle East and North Africa program at British think-tank Chatham House. “So what they [the Egyptians] are trying to do now is form a united Arab front, and to speak to people from the establishment – those who are still in the State Department, the Pentagon and Congress – to try to pressure the president.”
They want to show that this issue is bigger than just Egypt and Jordan, and they’re also trying to gain European support, Aboudouh told DW.
Several Arab states have said they’ll make their own proposal for Gaza’s reconstruction. An emergency meeting of the Arab League, set for February 27 in Cairo, is likely to result in a draft plan.
According to media reports, the “new” Arab plan would likely be based on older ideas, including a proposal from the Palestinian Authority, which manages the occupied West Bank.
It would likely include a technocratic administration for Gaza, security forces trained by Arab countries and no evacuations. Displaced Palestinians would be housed in agricultural and other areas in Gaza until reconstruction is complete. Estimated costs are over $30 billion, and Egypt is also likely to arrange a donor conference.
The Arab League may also “address stopgap measures to assist Jordan and Egypt, in case Washington cuts its assistance to these countries,” Marwan Muasher, vice president for studies at the Washington-based Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, suggested in an analysis this week.
Whatever the proposal looks like, experts point out that there are still major unknowns.
“Will [the Arab states] put their money where their mouth is?,” asked Katulis. “A lot depends on what sort of Israeli government they’re dealing with, and what sort of decisions it makes.”
“If we were just talking about Trump, we could say with a high level of confidence that this [‘Gaza Riviera’ plan] is not going to happen,” Aboudouh added. “But if we are talking about the Israeli far right, that’s another story. They have embraced this idea and want to advance it.”
Trump’s talk of a “Gaza Riviera” has emboldened the right-wing in Israel “to imagine that their wildest dreams of the ethnic cleansing of the Palestinian Territories might come true,” Katulis concluded. “And if there’s an annexation of the West Bank, then all bets are off.”