Reza Mahmud :
Economists and institutions such as the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) have revised their forecasts for Bangladesh’s gross domestic product (GDP), attributing the downgrade to political unrest, flooding, and a lack of investment. Despite these challenges, experts indicate that the country’s economy remains relatively healthy, considering the adverse conditions it has faced, including political upheaval in July and August, and the post-changeover unstable social and economic environment.
Economists have pointed out that the previous claims of high GDP growth during the Hasina era were exaggerated and based on manipulated data. According to them, the growth figures were not reflective of the country’s true economic performance.
The IMF has revised its GDP growth forecast for the 2024-25 fiscal year, predicting a reduction to 3.8 per cent due to political instability, industrial unrest, and the impacts of flooding.
Eminent economist Professor Mahbub Ullah told The New Nation that the claimed economic growth under the Hasina government was fabricated and that data from the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS) and Bangladesh Bank was manipulated to project inflated figures. He added that, according to the latest IMF forecast, Bangladesh’s GDP growth would be 3.8 per cent for the current fiscal year, reflecting the true economic scenario.
Dr. Zahid Hossain, former Lead Economist at the World Bank’s Bangladesh office, also criticised the previously announced 7-8 per cent GDP growth figures, asserting that they were exaggerated. He noted that the World Bank’s updated forecast indicates a 4 per cent growth, which, while modest, is still a positive outcome compared to the global growth forecast of 3.2 per cent.
In its statement issued on December 18, 2024, the IMF lowered Bangladesh’s GDP growth forecast to 3.8 per cent for FY 2024-25, attributing the slowdown to public unrest, flooding, and tighter economic policies. The IMF, however, expects the economy to rebound in FY 2026, with growth projected at 6.7 per cent as policies ease.
Inflation is expected to remain high at around 11 per cent for FY 2025 but is anticipated to decline to 5 per cent by FY 2026, aided by stricter policies and improved supply conditions. The IMF has warned that the economic outlook remains uncertain, with risks largely on the downside.
In addition to these forecasts, Bangladesh has requested further financial assistance from the IMF to maintain macroeconomic stability and strengthen resilience against external shocks. The authorities have committed to continuing fiscal consolidation, tightening monetary policy to control inflation, and implementing reforms to enhance the financial sector and promote sustainable, inclusive growth.
The IMF and Bangladesh authorities have reached a staff-level agreement on the necessary policy measures to complete the third review of the IMF-supported programme under the Extended Credit Facility, Extended Fund Facility, and Resilience and Sustainability Facility. This agreement is awaiting approval by the IMF Executive Board in the coming weeks.
