Abu Jakir :
The Bangladesh interim government is closely observing the situation along its border with Myanmar as fears grow of a fresh influx of Rohingya refugees. This follows the recent capture of Maungdaw Township in Rakhine State by the Arakan Army (AA), an armed rebel group in Myanmar.
After 11 months of intense conflict, the AA seized the Border Guard Police’s (BGP) final stronghold, the No. 5 Battalion, on Sunday afternoon, consolidating their control over the township.
In response, Bangladesh has intensified security measures along the Bandarban and Cox’s Bazar borders. The Border Guard Bangladesh (BGB) and the Coast Guard have been deployed to mitigate potential refugee crossings. The government has also issued public warnings against unauthorized movement across the border.
The takeover of Maungdaw by the Arakan Army has heightened security concerns for the approximately 500,000 Rohingyas still residing in Rakhine. Tensions between the AA and the Rohingya population persist, raising fears of violence and displacement. Analysts warn that the instability could lead to a new wave of refugees entering Bangladesh, further straining resources and complicating repatriation efforts.
Adding to the complexities, recent diplomatic tensions between
Bangladesh and India have left the region’s geopolitical landscape fragile. Analysts have urged the interim government to strengthen international diplomacy and engage proactively with the Arakan Army to address the crisis and prevent further Rohingya migration.
High-Level Monitoring and International Engagement
The Office of the Chief Adviser and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs are actively monitoring the developments. On Tuesday, Dr. Khalilur Rahman, High Representative for Rohingya Crisis and Priority Issues, and Foreign Affairs Adviser Tauhid Hossain held a closed-door meeting to discuss the evolving situation.
During a virtual seminar at Dhaka University on Friday, Dr. Rahman stated that no immediate action would be taken against the Arakan Army without thorough observation. “The entire Bangladesh-Myanmar border is under the control of the Arakan Army,” he said, emphasizing that international allies, including the United Nations, support Bangladesh’s stance on regional stability.
Dr. Saima Ahmed, an international relations professor at Dhaka University, stressed the need to engage with the Rohingya community to ensure their safety before repatriation. She suggested that bilateral talks alone would not suffice and called for broader international cooperation to address the crisis.
Challenges to Repatriation and Rising Tensions The ongoing conflict in Myanmar has further stalled the Rohingya repatriation process. Rebel groups such as the Arakan Rohingya Army (ARA) and the Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army (ARSA) had previously aligned with the junta, complicating the situation for Rohingyas in rebel-controlled areas. Concerns over prolonged repatriation delays and renewed waves of migration have intensified.
On Wednesday, Myanmar’s media outlet The Irrawaddy reported that the AA had captured hundreds of junta soldiers, including Brigadier General Thurin Tun, during their takeover of Maungdaw.
Following the seizure, the AA imposed an indefinite ban on riverine traffic on Myanmar’s side of the Naf River. Bangladesh has since heightened vigilance along the border, deploying additional naval patrols and restricting the movement of larger vessels in the river.
Experts Call for Dialogue and Comprehensive Solutions Experts have called for meaningful dialogue with the Arakan Army to address the Rohingya issue effectively.
Some have also highlighted the potential for escalating crises, including renewed migration, delays in repatriation, and challenges in Bangladesh-Myanmar trade relations.
A military analyst quoted by The Irrawaddy suggested that resuming trade with Myanmar could alleviate hardships for residents in western Myanmar.
However, he stressed that resolving the Rohingya issue would require Bangladesh to engage in substantive talks with the Arakan Army and international stakeholders.
Meanwhile, the United Nations has warned of an impending humanitarian crisis, reporting that over two million people in Rakhine are at risk of famine due to the junta’s blockade of food, fuel, and medical supplies.
Professor Zakir Hossain, a researcher on the Rohingya issue, expressed concerns over Bangladesh’s capacity to accommodate more refugees.
“With over 1.2 million Rohingyas already residing in Cox’s Bazar, Bangladesh cannot afford to take in additional refugees,” he said, urging the government to take swift and strategic actions to prevent further unrest.
He also called for international collaboration to ensure the safe repatriation of Rohingyas and sustainable solutions to the crisis.
