Abdul Rafay Afzal :
The recent decision by Bangladeshi authorities to abolish security clearance requirements for Pakistani nationals, coupled with the resumption of maritime trade are signalling a major shift in the foreign policy approach of Bangladesh’s interim leadership under Mohammed Yunus.
Earlier deposed dictator Sheikh Hasina’s administration deepened a chasm between Bangladesh and Pakistan through the imposition of stringent trade restrictions and the infamous “red list” that inhibited the clearance of Pakistani goods, leading to a significant decline in bilateral trade. It’s noteworthy that in 2020, the total trade between Bangladesh and Pakistan was a mere $543 million, a stark underperformance given the potential of their combined market size and shared historical ties.
The turning point in this narrative is marked by the arrival of a cargo ship from Pakistan to Bangladesh, the first such occurrence in almost two decades. This resumption of maritime trade, following the diplomatic thaw, epitomizes the transformative nature of this rapprochement. As Pakistani and Bangladeshi traders navigated the bureaucratic labyrinth to lift the “red list” designation from Bangladeshi imports, they signaled an unequivocal eagerness to engage in mutually beneficial commerce. This move not only promises to bolster economic ties but also stands as a testament to the growing political will on both sides to transcend historical grievances.
Economically, this rapprochement holds considerable promise. According to the International Trade Centre, potential trade between Bangladesh and Pakistan could soar to over $2 billion annually if barriers are removed and cooperation is nurtured initially. It is an important point to note if Trade ties in between Pakistan and Bangladesh picks a hype and boom it can surpass and have potential to increase the volume to over 10 billion dollars as Pakistan is World’s 5th biggest market and Bangladesh is also a Nation of 170 million, such improvement and easement in trade can boom the economies of both developing South Asian Nation. Enhanced trade relations could benefit Bangladesh, with its burgeoning textile industry, by providing access to Pakistani raw materials and cotton at competitive rates. Conversely, Pakistan could gain from Bangladesh’s expanding consumer market and investment in sectors like pharmaceuticals and electronics. This symbiotic economic engagement can serve as a catalyst for broader regional economic integration, fostering a sense of interdependence that bodes well for geopolitical stability.
Politically, this shift in Bangladesh’s foreign posture may signify a recalibration of its regional alliances, particularly in the aftermath of Sheikh Hasina’s ousting. While India has historically been seen as a staunch ally of Bangladesh, especially under Hasina’s administration, this newfound bond with Pakistan might be perceived as a subtle rebalancing act within the region which is seen as a threat to Indian Dominance on its neighbours in the South Asian region. Example of this can be seen in the Indian media who used to praise Bangladesh before but now they are putting the narrative of an extremist Bangla due to the newly found ties with Pakistan. Indian commentators’ backlash underscores their apprehension regarding this move, illuminating the nuanced power play in South Asian geopolitics.
From a strategic perspective, this paradigm shift may allow Bangladesh to exercise greater autonomy in its foreign policy, leveraging its position as a pivotal state in the Bay of Bengal. Before that due to reliance on Indian Support of Hasina Regime there were moments of compromise in the foreign policy especially when it comes to Pakistan but now Bangladesh is showing an independent foreign policy which can take out the Bengalis out of the current crisis very soon if implemented properly. Bridging ties with Pakistan might also offer Bangladesh strategic depth, providing it with a broader coalition of support within regional forums like the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC). Given that South Asia remains one of the world’s least economically integrated regions, these bilateral efforts could inject a much-needed impetus into regional cooperation, mitigating the perennial geopolitical rivalries that have stymied collective progress.
However, the path to a fully normalized relationship is fraught with complexities. Historical animosities, compounded by domestic political narratives that leverage nationalist sentiments, could impede the sustainability of this renewed camaraderie. Anti-Pakistan sentiments in Bangladesh, stemming from the memories of the 1971 war, and concerns within Pakistan about over-dependence on Bangladeshi markets, could surface as formidable challenges. It is imperative, therefore, for both nations to cultivate a sustained dialogue and foster people-to-people contacts, promoting cultural and educational exchanges that humanize and heal past wounds.
Moreover, this rapprochement must be carefully managed in the context of broader regional geopolitics. As Bangladesh and Pakistan resume diplomatic and economic interactions, the reactions from neighboring India and China will be keenly watched. India, in particular, might perceive this as a dilution of its influence in Bangladesh, potentially recalibrating its own diplomatic approach. Conversely, China, with its Belt and Road Initiative, could see this as an opportunity to enhance its presence and influence in South Asia through strategic partnerships with both nations.
The unfolding rapprochement between Bangladesh and Pakistan marks a historic shift that could redefine the geopolitical contours of South Asia. With thoughtful engagement, mutual respect, and a focus on shared economic prosperity, this transformation presents an unprecedented opportunity for both nations to forge a resilient and cooperative partnership. This new dawn in their bilateral relations, if nurtured with diplomacy and pragmatism, could indeed serve as a cornerstone for a more stable, prosperous, and interdependent South Asia. The world watches with bated breath as these erstwhile foes navigate the intricate path from estrangement to amity, ushering in a new epoch of regional solidarity and progress.
(The writer is Editor in Chief, The Advocate Post published form Pakistan).
