Barrister Solaiman Tushar :
India has long considered Sheikh Hasina a close ally, with Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government steadfastly supporting her leadership. India has even advocated on Sheikh Hasina’s behalf with various countries, including the United States. However, with her recent downfall, questions arise about whether her exit signifies a defeat for India in Bangladesh. The growing anti-India sentiment in Bangladesh – fuelled by Sheikh Hasina seeking refuge in India – reflects increasing public discontent. Many now view her downfall as a significant setback for India.
Over recent years, India has struggled to maintain strong alliances with neighbouring countries, facing challenges in nations like the Maldives, Sri Lanka, and Nepal, where anti-India sentiment has paved the way for leaders leaning towards China. Bangladesh’s drift from India is particularly concerning, given its strategic importance in safeguarding India’s eastern security and connectivity with Southeast Asia. A Bangladesh aligned with China, the US, or Pakistan could significantly challenge India’s regional strategy.
India has enjoyed a unique relationship with Bangladesh since its pivotal role in Bangladesh’s 1971 independence war against Pakistan. Bilateral ties deepened after Sheikh Hasina returned to power in 2009, resulting in a robust economic and security partnership. However, her recent ouster amid widespread anti-India protests has put this alliance in jeopardy. Michael Kugelman, director of the Wilson Center’s South Asia Institute, described it as a “nightmare scenario” for India, highlighting how New Delhi’s unyielding support for Hasina has backfired.
Sheikh Hasina’s governance faced mounting criticism for authoritarian tendencies and alleged election rigging, with accusations that India’s support enabled her prolonged rule. In July-August 2024, violent crackdowns on protestors by her administration further eroded her domestic legitimacy. Her resignation on 5 August 2024 following massive student protests marked a turning point, with many Bangladeshis blaming India for propping up her regime.
India and Bangladesh have faced periodic tensions over water-sharing disputes, migration concerns, and historical grievances. After the 1975 assassination of Sheikh Mujibur Rahman – Sheikh Hasina’s father and a key ally of India – Bangladesh endured years of military rule. During this time, successive governments leaned towards Pakistan, straining India-Bangladesh relations.
The Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), led by Begum Khaleda Zia, has also had a historically fraught relationship with India. Should BNP-Jamaat come to power following free and fair elections, building a cooperative relationship with India may prove challenging. These parties hold India responsible for enabling Sheikh Hasina’s prolonged rule and the controversial elections during her tenure.
Sheikh Hasina’s fall represents a significant geopolitical setback for India. Her government’s collapse highlights growing resentment towards India’s perceived interference in Bangladesh’s internal affairs. The rise of anti-India sentiment among Bangladeshis has also been exacerbated by Hasina’s asylum in India and allegations of India’s complicity in her controversial rule.
India’s reaction to these developments has sparked controversy. Allegations of extremist attacks on Bangladeshi institutions in India and concerns raised by Indian politicians about Hindu persecution in Bangladesh have strained relations further. However, reports suggest that the interim government in Bangladesh has improved security for religious and ethnic minorities, contrary to claims made by some Indian media outlets.
India must reassess its approach to Bangladesh in light of Sheikh Hasina’s ouster. While Hasina now faces charges from the International Crimes Tribunal in Bangladesh, her chapter in Bangladeshi politics appears closed. India should respect the terms of its extradition treaty with Bangladesh and refrain from harbouring a fugitive accused of crimes against humanity.
To repair relations with Bangladesh, India needs to address the concerns of the Bangladeshi populace and avoid actions that may be perceived as interference. Ensuring a balanced, mutually respectful partnership will be key to restoring India’s influence in the region and countering the growing strategic presence of other powers like China and Pakistan.
(Barrister Tushar is an Advocate of the Supreme Court of Bangladesh and a researcher in international law).
