Staff Reporter :
As Americans vote in the 2024 presidential election, all eyes are on whether Democrat Kamala Harris or Republican Donald Trump will secure victory in a race that could go down to the wire.
Months of anticipation, countless polls, and fluctuating betting markets have set the stage for a nail-biting conclusion.
With over 80 million early voters already casting ballots, an equal number were expected at the polls on Tuesday, determining the outcome in a race centered on seven battleground states: Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, North Carolina, Georgia, Nevada, and Arizona. The high volume of mail-in ballots, especially in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, means results could take days to finalize, according to major media outlets.
A High-Stakes Showdown
This election caps off a particularly contentious race between former President Trump, who has faced two impeachments and multiple indictments, and Harris, the sitting Vice President who entered the race after President Joe Biden withdrew in July. Adding to the drama, Trump was targeted in two assassination attempts during the campaign, intensifying the stakes.
With both candidates needing 270 electoral votes, the spotlight is on the “blue wall” states-Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin-which have historically moved in tandem since 1988.
Harris’s path to victory hinges on winning these states; if she does, even losses in the Sun Belt states like North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona, and Nevada may not derail her path to the presidency.
However, Trump could make gains if he captures one of these critical states, particularly Pennsylvania, which would open a narrower but achievable path to victory.
Clash of Forecasts: Lichtman vs. Silver
Adding intrigue to the election, well-known prognosticators Allan Lichtman and Nate Silver have offered differing predictions. Lichtman, an American University professor known for accurately predicting nine of the last ten elections, has forecasted a Harris victory. Conversely, Silver, founder of FiveThirtyEight, recently stated that while the race remains tight, his intuition points to a Trump win.
Gender and Demographic Divides
The 2024 race has starkly divided voters by gender and demographics. Polls indicate Harris has strong support among women, while Trump has a notable advantage with male voters. To counter Harris’s lead with female voters, Trump’s campaign has targeted young men without college degrees, with efforts extending to outreach within the African-American community.
Trump’s efforts to attract young Black male voters have included strategic alliances with high-profile rappers and endorsements that resonated with young male voters. Despite this, Harris still leads African-American voters by a margin of 72%-17%, according to a recent USA Today/Suffolk University poll.
Harris has also garnered significant support among Latino voters, a demographic crucial in swing states like Pennsylvania and Florida. However, her margins, while strong, have narrowed since 2020. In Pennsylvania, Harris leads 64%-30% among Latino voters, including a decisive advantage with Puerto Rican voters following a controversial remark by comedian Tony Hinchcliffe at a Trump rally.
Key Voter Dynamics
Female voters have consistently leaned toward Harris, bolstered by her focus on reproductive rights and other gender-specific issues, especially after the reversal of Roe v. Wade. Early voting trends reflect this gender gap, with women outpacing men by about 9 percentage points nationwide-a margin similar to Biden’s advantage in 2020.
Harris’s final push in Pennsylvania, a state with 19 electoral votes, underscores its importance. In the Keystone State, she leads Trump 51%-47% among white voters. Similar razor-thin margins define her lead in Michigan and Wisconsin, where her edge remains within the margin of error.
Election Day Expectations
As Election Day unfolds, all eyes remain on these critical battleground states. Late-counted mail ballots and close margins in key states mean that the results may not be known immediately. Both campaigns have prepared for the possibility of extended vote counts, legal challenges, and recounts, especially in states where mail-in ballots could swing the final tally.
Ultimately, whether Harris can turn the “blue wall” into a solid foundation for victory or Trump reclaims his 2016 Rust Belt strongholds will determine the direction of the country. For now, the nation watches and waits to see which path forward will prevail.
