Dr. Forqan Uddin Ahmed :
Bangladesh, as the gateway to South and Southeast Asia, remains geographically central in the Bay of Bengal region. And naturally, the location of the country makes it a focal element in the Indo-Pacific strategy of the United States, India, Japan and Australia. Various initiatives – like the Asia Rebalancing Strategy, Belt and Road Initiative, Free and Open Indo-Pacific, Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, Trilateral Security Pact, Indo-Pacific Tilt, Security and Growth for All in the Region, and Indo-Pacific Economic Forum for Prosperity-have been adopted by countries to address new security challenges as well as infrastructural, economic and technological developments in the region. Polarization and division are the common phenomena among the players and actors in the indo-pacific region. Dhaka’s stand on the realities of great power politics and the indo-pacific Conundrum. The Indo-Pacific represents a focal point for great power politics in the 21st century. The Indo-Pacific conundrum reflects a complex and evolving landscape. What are the requirements for navigating the complexities of the Indo-Pacific conundrum?Can strategic diplomacy navigate the complexities of the Indo-Pacific conundrum?Is Bangladesh facing opportunity and challenges in dealing with the indo-pacific?Is Bangladesh a free and open participant in the indo-pacific region?
China is a predominant power in the region which challenges India both militarily and economically. China has geopolitical interests in both South and Southeast Asia. It provides economic and military aid to the smaller states of the whole Indian Ocean region. India is, therefore, concerned about the limitation it can impose on its becoming the predominant power in the region. The US has its interests in the region mainly in the form of keeping its oil lifeline open. So the US military presence in the Indian Ocean area will probably continue in foreseeable future. However, as the economic supremacy of the US is declining, it is unlikely that it would entangle itself in all the disputes of this region. Nevertheless, when its vital national interests will be threatened, it would not hesitate to intervene militarily.
The security scenario in the Indian Ocean Region is undergoing changes after the Cold War. The changes may be analyzed in the context of the interactions of the major actors like India, Pakistan and China and the loss of the strategic balance between the two erstwhile superpowers. The power potential of the other actors in the Central Asia, Southeast Asia and South Asia also impinges the scenario. Although challenged by Pakistan, India remains the predominant power in South Asia. The power balance gets affected when Pakistan receives favorable inputs from Central and Southeast Asian Muslim countries. The power rivalry between India and China is relevant both in South and Southeast Asia. China is growing both economically and militarily. America is likely to get the balance in India’s favor for she probably would like to counterbalance China in the Region.India is tobe viewed as a dominant power in this sub-region just as the US,Soviet Union (former) and China are viewed in their respectiveareas. Other smaller states are again apprehensive of this predominance. India cannot but remain watchful on this development. There is a possibility of an increase in the nuclear demonstration by India and Pakistan. India is likely to step up its nuclear activities and research. However, nuclear deterrence may preclude the possibility of a conventional war breaking out between these two contenders.
The Indo-Pacific conundrum reflects a complex and evolving landscape where these initiatives interact and sometimes clash. The great powers’ ability to navigate these initiatives while managing competing interests and avoiding escalation is central to the region’s stability. The Indo-Pacific’s growing prominence and the convergence of great power politics in the region have far- reaching implications for global geopolitics and the international order. The trends observed cooperation, convergence, divergence, conflict, and the quest for dominance highlight the nuanced nature of interactions among major powers. Cooperation and convergence among great powers can lead to constructive outcomes, such as enhanced regional stability and economic prosperity.
Bangladesh, situated in the Bay of Bengal, faces both opportunities and challenges in dealing with the Indo-Pacific region. The expanding economic significance of the Indo-Pacific offers substantial opportunities for developing nations like Bangladesh. Investments in infrastructure and trade partnerships can drive economic growth and development, contributing to regional peace and prosperity. Engagement with the Indo-Pacific region and its major players enables developing nations like Bangladesh to establish a strong presence, advance regional peace and security, and leverage the region’s potential for the benefit of their citizens. Developing deeper economic relationships and enhancing diplomatic standing are key objectives in this endeavor, promising to position Bangladesh as a significant Indo-Pacific participant.The pursuit of greater autonomy in foreign policy and cementing the self-image of Bangladesh contradicts any policy of ‘bandwagoning’ or ‘putting all eggs in one basket policy. Given the realities, it has been a herculean task for Dhaka to chart out the proper balancing strategy as IPS grows in breadth and scope. Given the realities, it has been a herculean task for Dhaka to chart out the proper balancing strategy as great power politics is becoming more and more complicated.
Bangladesh must formulate a befitting response and invest resources, and create a knowledge base to confront the new reality. Bangladesh has added ‘peaceful, secure and inclusive’ to understand the region.The US has recognized the geopolitical importance of Bangladesh by mentioning that the country is a bridge between South Asia and South-east Asia. The UK considers Bangladesh a strategic partner in the Indo-Pacific region and recognizes Bangladesh’s efforts to uphold the Rules-Based International System. Japan also conveys that Bangladesh is a vital country in terms of geopolitics, and the country needs to utilize its geographical advantage. And so, this recognition of Bangladesh’s geopolitical importance by regional and extra-regional powers clearly illustrates the growing importance of Bangladesh in the Indo-Pacific region.
(The writer is former Deputy Director General, Bangladesh Ansar and VDP).
