Rayhan Ahmed Topader :
Relations between Pakistan and Iran are said to be very sensitive but cordial. Both have accused each other of harboring militant groups at various times. Both have been raiding their border areas for years?
There are about 900 km of border areas between the two countries. Security on both sides has long been a concern for both governments.
The Iranian attack is believed to have taken place in Sabj Koh village, about 45 km from the Iranian border and 90 km from the nearest town of Panjgarh.
Local officials describe the area as a sparsely populated area of the cattle-owning Baloch tribes. Where there is massive smuggling of goods, drugs and weapons.
People on both sides of the border feel deprived of basic needs, face discrimination and demand a larger share of their own resources, security commentator Zaigham Khan told the BBC.
In Iran, the Sunni Muslim Baloch minority complains of discrimination in the Shia Muslim majority state. The Baloch separatist groups are continuing their insurgency against the Pakistani government.
According to the Office of the Director of National Intelligence, Jaish al-Adal is the most active and influential Sunni militant group operating in Sistan-Baluchistan. Washington and Tehran have labeled them as militant groups.
Another Pakistani security commentator, Amir Rana, said he thinks the diplomatic crisis will take some time to calm down, but the point is that Pakistan does not want to escalate it.
However, in the past, Pakistan has not responded to Iran’s actions along the border. But Islamabad withdrew its ambassador from Iran and expelled the Iranian ambassador. Pakistan launched a missile attack on terrorist hideouts in Iranian territory.
As a result, it is feared that this tension will turn into a long conflict. Although Iran and Pakistan have historical ties, the current conflict has fueled internal conflicts as well as border tensions.
Pakistan is a nuclear-armed nation, while Iran, which most observers believe is seeking nuclear weapons, is fueling tensions between the two neighbors.
The attack comes at a time of growing unrest in the Middle East centered on the war between Israel and Iran-backed Hamas.
Iran and Pakistan have a historic rivalry, but former Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan has taken steps to improve relations with Tehran. During his time this relationship improved somewhat.
But after Imran Khan was removed from power, and Western-backed politicians came to power with the help of the military that continuity no longer existed. Iran and Pakistan established relations on August 14, 1947, Pakistan’s Independence Day.
Iran was the first country to recognize Pakistan. Pakistan had good relations with Reza Shah Pahlavi of Iran. One of the reasons for this was the close alliance of both countries with the United States and their opposition to the expansion of socialism in Central Asia.
Iran’s Islamic Revolution overthrew the Pahlavi dynasty in 1979, and after the Islamic Republic of Pakistan recognized Iran, relations were not as good as during the Shah’s reign.
Instead, Pakistan’s arch-enemy India developed closer strategic ties with the new Iranian government. At the same time, Pakistan and Iran accused each other of funding, arming and training separatist groups.
The situation was different during the Cold War, at least until the fall of the Shah. Both countries were then founding members of the anti-communist alliance CENTO. Iran under the Shah supported Pakistan in the Indo-Pakistani wars of 1965 and 1971.
Both countries repressed Baloch separatists during this period, and Iran even supported Pakistan’s military operations in Balochistan in the 1970s. During the Soviet-Afghan War from 1979 to 1989, Iran supported the Pakistan-funded Afghan Mujahideen.
Similarly, Pakistan supported Iran during the Iran-Iraq war from 1980 to 1988. Pakistan’s support for the Taliban during the Third Afghan Civil War from 1992 to 1996 became a problem for Iran, as the country was opposed to Taliban-controlled Afghanistan at the time.
Iran supported the anti-Taliban Northern Alliance from 1996 to 2001 during the subsequent Fourth Afghan Civil War. After the 9/11 attacks, Pakistan joined the US’s so-called war on terror.
In the 2020s, the United States was forced to withdraw all its troops from Afghanistan, and the Taliban returned to power.
Pakistan then took initiative to cooperate with Iran for peace and stability in Afghanistan. Imran Khan was the pioneer of this initiative. Both sides agreed that they should not use Afghanistan for geopolitical rivalry.
Pakistan has often acted as a mediator in power struggles between Iran and Saudi Arabia. Iran has also expressed interest in joining the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor as part of the broader Belt and Road Initiative.
Both sides continue to cooperate economically wherever possible. But the rift between the two countries has been long-standing, with frequent skirmishes along the fraught border. Both countries have accused each other of harboring separatist groups.
The events of January 2024 didn’t just happen. These are the culmination of years of tension and counter-charges that have escalated in recent times.
Iran has accused Pakistan of harboring the Sunni militant group Jaish al-Adl, which is responsible for attacks on Iranian soil.
Pakistan has retaliated by accusing Iran of supporting Baloch separatists within its borders. Thus geopolitics has further complicated Pakistan-Iran relations.
Iran has an important role in the Middle East despite strained relations with the West, particularly the United States.
Iran’s ties with Russia and China balance Pakistan’s close ties with the US and Saudi Arabia, transforming the regional equation into a complex geopolitical chessboard. So it is difficult to predict what will happen in the future.
While an all-out war seems unlikely for now, the possibility of further escalation casts a dark shadow over the region.
But moving forward gracefully requires fine diplomacy, confidence-building measures and a willingness to address the root causes of conflict.
However, the statement of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Pakistan said that the violation of Pakistan’s sovereignty is completely unacceptable. The consequences can be serious.
In December last year, there was an attack on a police station in Rusk, Iran. At least 11 Iranian policemen lost their lives. Jaish al-Adl claimed responsibility for the attack.
Jaish al-Adl is also a terrorist organization in the eyes of the United Nations. Iran and Pakistan often accuse each other of harboring militants. It is said that the militants make a base in one country and attack another territory.
However, the involvement of the government forces of both sides in these incidents is rare.
Michael Kugelman, director of the South Asia Institute of the Washington-based think tank Wilson Center, said in an X message that Iran has previously carried out cross-border operations against Pakistan-based militants.
But I can’t remember any campaign like this time. Kugelman also warned that it could sink bilateral relations between Pakistan and Iran. Even at the best of times it can create a serious crisis in bilateral relations.
(The writer is a researcher and columnist )
