2024 Elections: Taiwan election poses test of US-China ties this year

January 7, 2024

Supporters of Hou Yu-ih, a candidate for Taiwan's presidency from the main opposition party Kuomintang attend a campaign event in Keelung on Friday.

Reuters :
Taiwan’s election next weekend poses challenges for Washington no matter who wins, with a victory for the ruling party sure to exacerbate tensions with China, while an opposition triumph might raise awkward questions about the nation’s defense policies.
The presidential and legislative elections on Saturday next week represent the first real wild card this year for Washington’s goal of stabilizing ties with China.
Beijing has cast the elections as a choice between war and peace across the Taiwan Strait, warning that any attempt to push for Taiwan’s independence means conflict.
Supporters of Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) presidential candidate New Taipei City Mayor Hou You-yi gather to see him at a market in the city’s Lujhou District yesterday.
US officials have been careful to avoid appearing to steer or to interfere with the nation’s democratic process.
“Our strong expectation and hope is that those elections be free of intimidation or coercion, or interference from all sides. The United States is not involved and will not be involved in these elections,” US Ambassador to China Nicholas Burns said last month.
Such detachment has proven tricky in the past. Former US president Barack Obama’s administration raised eyebrows before Taiwan’s 2012 election when a senior US official aired doubts about whether the Democratic Progressive Party’s (DPP) then-presidential candidate Tsai Ing-wen (???) could maintain a stable relationship with China.

Tsai lost that year, but won the presidency in 2016 and re-election in 2020. Tensions with China have risen, raising fears that Beijing might act on its vow to use military force against Taiwan. Term limits bar Tsai from running again, but China has branded this year’s DPP candidate and Vice President William Lai (???) as a “separatist,” and analysts expect Beijing to ramp up military pressure should he prevail.
Both the DPP and the opposition Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) say only they can preserve the peace and have committed to bolstering Taiwan’s defenses.
Both say only Taiwan’s 23 million people can decide the nation’s future, although the KMT says it strongly opposes independence.
Washington also says it does not support independence, but there is some concern in the US capital that a victory by the KMT’s presidential candidate, New Taipei City Mayor Hou You-yi (???) could undermine US efforts to beef up Taiwan’s military deterrence.