There is no good news for the government that largely depends on the RMG exports and workers’ remittance to make the country’s balance of payment. A few days before, newspapers reported that RMG export orders from European Union countries were falling on a year-on-year basis due to the Ukraine-Russia war and a general fear of a recession in Europe.
Yesterday the newspapers broke another piece of bad news. Though manpower export from Bangladesh has surged considerably in recent times, remittances to Bangladesh declined by 7.4 per cent to become 1.52 billion in October. This was the lowest in the last eight months. Why? Expatriate workers prefer to send their money through hundi as there is a significant exchange rate gap between the formal and informal channels.
Currently banks in Bangladesh pay Tk 107 to remittance recipients for each dollar whereas in the kerb market each dollar is bought at Tk-112-Tk113. It is assumed, and logically though, that beneficiaries of remittances are receiving almost the same rate from the hundi cartel. Naturally, remittance senders will use the means of sending dollars that will benefit them more.
Meanwhile, the IMF team is also in town to discuss the nitty-gritty of the loan of $4.5 billion that Bangladesh has asked for from the international lending organization as part of its economic bailout plan. Now the government has agreed, under pressure from the IMF, to count the country’s reserves according to the internationally recognized practice and that will make the total reserve of the country much lower than what the government was telling the people.
Quoting the sources of the Bangladesh Bank, a national daily on October 30 reported that if the process, as desired by IMF, is followed, the reserves will be reduced to $27.8 billion from $35.8 billion as declared earlier.
Keeping the depressing economic scenario aside, the Awami League government is also now politically cornered for its lies. More truth is revealed about the government more justified has become the claim that the government is in dying throes.
The government’s reliance on corruption and gun power is unlikely to work in the midst of popular protests against Awami League government. The demand is to get rid of the government that failed as people’s government. India is getting the bad name for sheltering and supporting the government that is afraid of free elections.
The BNP has been successfully organizing peaceful but hugely crowded rallies at the divisional level one after another with the government unable to apply force on the opposition as it used to do in the past decade. The US sanction on RAB has worked.
The BNP’s political programme will culminate on December 10 when they will hold rallies and demonstrations in the capital. Many analysts believe the date can be a watershed moment for the current Bangladesh politics.
Therefore, for Bangladesh the months ahead are not only crucial in terms of its economy that can potentially slip into a period of mass hunger or famine, the country is going to be, within a short time, politically volatile also with the current peaceful political atmosphere exploding into a violent strife between the government and the opposition parties on the demand of resignation of the Sheikh Hasina-led government and holding of a free and fair election in the country.
Unfortunately the government does not have the sense of freedom to resign now and negotiate peace and order under a competent and honest interim government. We are urging the government not to rely on violence to survive.
